Conventional Wisdom vs. the Inside Scoop

Conventional Wisdom: The Iranian government doesn't care what anyone thinks. It is determined to develop nuclear weapons, and it won’t negotiate.

View From the Inside: Iran may appear to thumb its nose at the West when it comes to nuclear weapons, but it cares very much what its own people think. The government views the public's approval of a nuclear program as critical to its success, and to that end government officials regularly use TV and other media to convince the citizenry of the justice of the nuclear cause.

But they’re not talking about weapons, says Farideh Farhi of the University of Hawaii. The program is framed as an important move toward self-sufficiency, meant for civilian energy use, “the cornerstone of an attempt to modernize the country.” Farhi says Bush’s threatening proclamations have served only to galvanize support. “[In Iran] Bush was repeatedly shown pointing his finger to his brain and saying, ‘We want to deny them the knowledge.’ That was very much effectively used within the context of public opinion.”

Farhi sees a potential way through the impasse, if the United States is willing to accept Iran’s unique politics and “try to influence it through an intricate process,” noting that any further attempts to sway Iranian public opinion “from the outside” are likely to backfire. The regime has used images of Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza to convince Iranians that the underlying U.S. goal is to stop the regional, technological and political ascendancy of Iran.

Despite the nuclear standoff, Farhi says there are shared interests that have to do with the region's stability. “If Iran is not playing the game, it’s because it’s more beneficial to act as a spoiler at times. We should give it an incentive not to do that.”

Economics expert Kaveh Ehsani points out that Iran has learned to survive despite U.S. sanctions. A boycott of Iranian oil and gas would hurt, but it would also have huge repercussions for the rest of the world. “I don’t think the global economy has the stomach for that,” says Ehsani, adding that no one wants a repeat of 1980 when Iranian oil was shut off during the revolution. What does Iran want? “A deal that would take regime change off the table,” Ehsani says.

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