Conventional Wisdom vs. the Inside Scoop

Conventional Wisdom: Iran is an authoritarian, dictatorial regime, ruled by Islamic law. Elections are held for appearances only, and no one questions those at the top.

View From the Inside: Although Iran is a theocratic state, many of its highest positions are elected offices, including the councils and assemblies that limit presidential power and determine who is allowed to run for office.

“Iran has unique institutions that do not exist in any other country as far as I know,” says Mehrzad Boroujerdi of Syracuse University, who has spent years studying the country’s complex political system. Many parallel institutions arose from the insecurities of a post-revolution government, but intense factionalism has led to internal debates about the direction Iran should take.

Elections are frequent, and a fair amount of turnover is normal—34 percent on average in the Assembly of Religious Experts, and more than 60 percent in Iran’s parliament.

Boroujerdi points out that governing bodies such as the Guardian Council, which screens candidates for elective office, can be influenced by others in power, including the president. The lowest numbers of disqualified candidates occurred quite markedly during the reign of the reformist President Mohammad Khatami. “It does matter who is president; it does matter how they can bargain and negotiate at the top to make sure more people are allowed to run.”

The Supreme Leader, as the name implies, holds sway over all governmental bodies and posts, but even he has handlers and other nonelected advisors. They are known collectively as the Office of the Supreme Leader, which Boroujerdi says is where a lot of give-and-take is happening, though few are privy to its activities. “All we have is anecdotal information about some of the important personalities there. … They wield an extraordinary amount of power.”

In general, however, clerics appear to be on their way out, as the numbers of elected or re-elected clergy have slipped considerably. Meanwhile, the overall level of education of members of parliament is on an upswing; fewer doctorates but many more bachelor's degrees. Female MPs are still rare, but their numbers are steadily growing.

Increasing voter apathy is of great concern to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who sees it as “a fist in the face of the U.S. when Iranians vote,” says New America Foundation fellow Afshin Molavi. Even among hard-line conservatives, he says, the issue of popular will is very important.

“Clearly, this particular system is going to change. It’s already changing,” observes longtime U.S. diplomat John Limbert. “It’s a system that suits what was set up in ’79 and that can’t last as the people change.” Boroujerdi says the regime is much more flexible than people give it credit for. “It evolved during the Iran-Iraq War, it evolved in the coming of power of reformist candidates, and it’s still evolving.”

Many agree with Boroujerdi that attention should be focused on the Revolutionary Guard, the elite military branch. “Former bodyguards of the clerics are now flexing their muscle,” he says. “They now have the economic weight, the political connections to be able to say, ‘We are the new kids in town.’”

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