Conventional Wisdom vs. the Inside Scoop

Conventional Wisdom: Ahmadinejad is a dangerous and unpredictable troublemaker who is popular in Iran.

View From the Inside: The rate of inflation has doubled since President Ahmadinejad took power in 2005, and those who once supported him now hold him responsible for the perilous state of Iran’s economy. His presidency will be challenged in 2009 elections, although voter apathy appears to be on the rise. A low turnout could help him stay in for another term—conservatives generally mobilize their base while discouraged reform-minded voters stay home—but not if the real power players in Iran want him out.

The current state of affairs doesn't much resemble the environment in which Ahmadinejad was elected. Voters rejected “millionaire mullah” Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2005 in favor of “the man of the people,” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who promised ordinary Iranians relief from spiraling inflation. Ahmadinejad’s campaign speeches rarely mentioned the controversial rhetoric (on destroying Israel and continuing uranium enrichment, for instance) for which he has received international attention as president, notes journalist and scholar Afshin Molavi. “He spoke of the price of meat, the price of onions…the indignities Iranians faced.”

The country’s oversight councils, dominated by clergy, make the presidential post far from sovereign. “The power structure in Iran is not vertical, or conical, it’s more horizontal with a little bump in the middle,” explains Babak Yektafar, editor of Washington Prism, a Persian-language online journal. “The emphasis should always be on [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei, even though he is not a dictator—he would never put himself in that position. But he is the ultimate arbitrator.”

Iran’s pro-nuclear Supreme Leader Khamenei initially enjoyed the international attention Ahmadinejad’s aggressive rhetoric brought to the country. But the president’s relatively low profile of late suggests the watchdog clerics have grown disenchanted with him. “If Ahmadinejad was not so antagonistic, Iran could be more powerful regionally,” says Molavi. If that disenchantment continues, Ahmadinejad could find himself running against a challenger who has the blessing of the Supreme Leader.

All the talk about blowing up Israel hasn’t impressed many voters, observes Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a professor of political science at Syracuse University. “The gentleman who was advising Ahmadinejad about the Holocaust denial and so forth received a mere 17,000 votes while the [winning] candidate received 700,000 votes. He was number 98 [on the slate of parliamentary candidates], which I think tells you something about how these messages are resonating or not.”

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